April is here and with it comes baseball season. It has been a long winter of offseason moves and training. Ball players are ready to feel the summer heat amidst pennant and statistical races. Many teams have changed managers or front office staff; many have acquired new starting pitchers or everyday players.
The Chicago Cubs hired former Tampa Bay Rays manager Joe Madden and are expected to compete in the NL Central for the first time this decade. They also signed left-hander Jon Lester to a six-year deal in December to anchor their rotation as the ace.
The San Diego Padres signed former ace of the Kansas City Royals James Shields in February after he led them to their first World Series appearance since 1984. They overhauled their entire outfield by acquiring Matt Kemp, Will Meyers, and Justin Upton. The Padres also traded for Upton’s little brother from the Atlanta Braves, Melvin Upton Jr., and all-star closer Craig Kimbrell.
The New York Yankees are another year older and more injury-prone. They have only one everyday regular under 31 years old. It certainly looks like it will be their worst season in quite some time. As a Red Sox fan, I look forward to seeing designated hitter David Ortiz hit bombs into lifeless, empty stands at Yankee Stadium because they price their fans out of tickets. (But at least now that Derick Jeter is retired, A-Rod can move back to shortstop.)
The length of the season, injuries, and parity throughout the game is what makes predicting the seasons outcome so difficult. There are only a handful of teams in the NFL and NBA each year that can realistically win the title. But in baseball, there are only a handful of teams that can’t win it, leaving 20 to 25 clubs to fight for one championship.
The difference between being good and bad is slight in baseball now. Nobody can hit much now that baseball’s PED use is down. The games are close and come down to baserunning, relief pitching, and defense. Teams that have starting pitching and hitting, but don’t have a solid bullpen in today’s MLB, are going nowhere. Predicting a team’s bullpen can be hard. Bullpens constantly change and are truly unpredictable year-to-year. This is why relief pitchers Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera are revered– their consistency out of the ‘pen was unprecedented.
Last season saw great defense, baserunning, and relief pitching lift the Royals all the way to the World Series. In 2015, it will be interesting to see if that trend conitnues.
The NL West
The Padres certainly made the biggest offseason splash of the division thanks to their first-year general manager A.J. Preller. However, it’s been proven in previous years that winning the winter doesn’t guarantee winning during October. They improved, but are they better than the defending champion San Francisco Giants or perennial contender Los Angeles Dodgers? San Diego’s best pitcher is James Shields. Is he going to be able to win head-to-head against pitchers like Madison Bumgardener and Clayton Kershaw? They may make the leap over San Francisco–who lost the likes of Pablo Sandoval at third base–but the Dodgers will still reign supreme in the West.
Los Angeles has the deepest pitching rotation in the division. Kershaw and fellow starting pitcher Zack Greinke form the best one-two punch in the game, making 400+ innings a virtual lock for L.A. They have Cuban superstar outfielder Yasiel Puig poised for greatness. Along with veterans like Jimmy Rollins, Howie Kendrick, and Adrian Gonzalez, I think the Dodgers will put it all together this year. If they don’t, manager Don Mattingly may find himself teamless this winter.
The NL East
The Washington Nationals once again have big expectations entering their season. They’ve put together a Murderers-Row of starting pitchers that includes Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez, and Doug Fister. They should feast on a weak division, which features probable 90+ game losers the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies. They’ll also benefit from playing the New York Mets, who have a lot of question marks surrounding them. Former Cy Young winning pitcher Matt Harvey is coming off of Tommy John surgery. They’ll need both him and star third baseman David Wright to play well if the Mets want to contend.
The Nationals one true challenge within the east could come from the youth movement in Miami, where the Marlins have put together a staff full of young arms. Star pitcher Jose Fernandez leads the rotation and newly acquired Dan Haren brings veteran leadership to the inexperienced group. They have locked up their best two position players, outfielders Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich, through their mid-twenties. That solidifies their outfield as one of the best in baseball for years to come and means the Marlins may be able to compete for championships for longer than one season. They have major pieces in place and could contend for a wild card, but the favored Nationals will likely prove to be too much. I think D.C. wins over 100 games, or damn near close.
The NL Central
Historically the NL Central division has belonged to the St. Louis Cardinals. Last season they finished on top despite key players falling victim to injury like catcher Yadier Molina. They added right fielder Jason Heyward to the top of their lineup and are certainly going to be in the mix for their 13th title. But it’s going to be a deeper division than in recent years.
The ‘Cards will have their rival in Chicago putting a competent team on the field for the first time in recent memory. Cubs rookie third baseman Kris Bryant is my lock to win Rookie of the Year barring injury. After watching him tear it up in spring training, it seems like he could be the best hitting third baseman in baseball. Bryant along with newly signed pitcher Jon Lester will be the faces of this Cubbies team if they do make a run at the postseason. And why can’t they? #yearofthegoat
Another franchise that was in turmoil but has brought back their winning culture is the Pittsburgh Pirates. They’ve made the playoffs each of the last two seasons after having one of the worst playoff droughts ever. Twenty long years of losing seasons were endured by Pirates faithful. They hired manager Clint Hurdle in November of 2010 to turn their losing ways around. After watching him lead the woeful Colorado Rockies, to the World Series in 2007, Pittsburgh was sold on the hire.
The turnaround wasn’t immediate. The Pirates suffered for another two seasons before tasting postseason baseball. But in 2013, their young talent put it together and clinched a Wild Card birth. They repeated the feat in 2014. Now, the Buccos are gunning for a division title to avoid the single game Wild Card round. Their resurgence over recent seasons is largely due to their ability to prevent runs with sinker ball-pitchers, tactical defensive shifts, and good pitch framing at the plate. Five-tool superstar center fielder Andrew McCutchen is a leading pre-season MVP candidate. I see Pittsburgh taking the next step and dethroning the Cardinals from their divisional crown in 2015.
The AL West
Why are the Seattle Mariners favored to win the West this season? They haven’t won it since 2001. They’ve been largely irrelevant because of inept ownership over the last decade, and I don’t see why big splashes in the free agent market changes that. They’ve done this before and it hasn’t worked. The Robinson Cano signing in 2013 has gone well thus far, but in the 2020s, when Cano is in his 40’s, will he be worth 24 million a year?
Yes, Seattle now has a star hitter to call their own but it’s moot with nobody around him that can hit as well. The Nelson Cruz signing was overrated, right-handed power numbers plummet in Seattle due to the deep left field. And their third baseman Kyle Seager may be one of the better ones in the game, but third is a relatively weak position nowadays. I just can’t see King Felix carrying them past the Angels to October.
The Los Angeles Angels bring back virtually the same team that won 98 games last season, with the exception of second baseman Howie Kendrick. However, they gave Kendrick up in order to fill a need from last season, rotational depth. They acquired 23 year-old left-handed starter Andrew Heaney from the Dodgers for Kendrick and it leaves a void at second. But the Angels offense is their major strength and I don’t see them missing a beat without Kendrick. My pre-season AL MVP pick, centerfielder Mike Trout, will lead the Angels once again. He continues to grow as a player and at just 23 years-old. I think he could start becoming one of the franchise’s best players ever. His Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is one of the highest all-time for a player so young, and history only tells us he’ll continue to improve. If I’m an Angels fan, I’m ecstatic he’s locked up through 2019. He’s the future of baseball.
The AL East
I’m an acknowledged Boston Red Sox fan, so maybe I shouldn’t even break down the AL East. For all uninterested in reading about the Sox for the next couple minutes, just bypass the next couple paragraphs until you see AL Central in bold.
For all that don’t mind my semi-biased opinion, it’s hard me to see anyone challenging Boston. They have a plethora of young players, a couple they’ll probably ship before the trade deadline for more starting pitching, as well as a couple they’ll depend on to play everyday. Their top rookie last year, shortstop Xander Bogarts, looks to have his breakout season, and outfielder Mookie Betts has such a swagger that it’s difficult to see him losing the leadoff slot at the top of the lineup.
They also added star Hanley Ramirez and stuck him in left field. Him, along with Dustin Pedrioa, David Ortiz, and Pablo Sandoval give them pop in the heart of the batting order. They should tee-off weak AL East pitching and win 90+ games.
The AL Central
Is this the year the Detroit Tigers fall from a top the Central Division? Pitcher Justin Verlander’s girlfriend, Kate Upton, certainly doesn’t help. He’s been trending in the wrong direction the last couple seasons. He’s lost some off his fastball, and as a result hasn’t been able to throw strikes. His strikeouts have gone down and his walks have gone up. This may all be due to the odometer being high, but it can’t be a coincidence that since he started seeing the supermodel his previous Cy Young form has declined.
They still have a competitive team with one of the best hitters the game has seen, Miguel Cabrera. They still have their great playoff experience from years past. They still play in a division with below-average teams. The Tigers will no doubtably be competitive, but there’s a team primed in the Central to overtake them.
The Cleveland Indians had a successful campaign in 2014, winning 85 games despite dealing with injuries to key everyday players. Pitcher Corey Kluber won the AL Cy Young award and the Tribe finished the season playing meaningful September baseball. In 2015, hopefully their young core of ballplayers will get even better, as potential is Cleveland’s major strength. Their rotation includes five starters 29 years-old and younger, and they may call up young top prospect Francisco Lindor at some point this summer to add to an already potent team. Manager Terry Francona knows what he’s doing, winning two championships with my beloved Red Sox. Cleveland could shock everyone and advance all the way to the Fall Classic, much like the suprising Royals did last season. It’s a toss up between the Tigers and Indians in the Central, but I like the Indians upside over the Tigers past success.
The Major League season is a marathon. It takes place over seven months and includes a variety of different variables like trades, injuries, and suspensions. If you woud have told me Corey Kluber would win the Cy Young in 2014 during spring training, I would’ve told you don’t know what you’re talking about. But that’s baseball—completely unpredictable. Yet, I’m still obsessed with trying to predict the outcome. Go figure.