Each day, I’ll be posting my thoughts and predictions for one of the remaining teams in the NBA playoffs. Today, I’m looking at the Golden State Warriors.
All season long, the Golden State Warriors dominated the competition. Steph Curry ascended to a new level, capturing his first (but definitely not last) MVP trophy and breaking the NBA record for made three-pointers in a season. Klay Thompson had a break-out year, Draymond Green finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting, and rookie head coach Steve Kerr helped turn a 51-win playoff team into a 67-win juggernaut.
Once the playoffs began, the Warriors continued their dominance, dismantling the New Orleans Pelicans in a four-game sweep. Then they met the Memphis Grizzlies in round 2. Uh oh.
The conference semifinals Warriors have looked like a hollow shell compared to the team we saw take on Anthony Davis and Co. Curry’s scoring average has dropped 12.5 points, and his three-point shooting percentage has dropped more than 14 percentage points. The entire Golden State offense has sputtered to a halt, and Memphis now holds a 2-1 lead in the series, not to mention home court advantage.
The Warriors haven’t looked this weak in over a year, since the fell to the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round of the 2013-2014 playoffs in seven games. While the Warriors have had to sweat a little for the first time all season, this situation isn’t as dire as some of Golden State’s critics have made it out to be.
This team has only played two bad games. It happens. No team is perfect. The Grizzlies on the other hand, are only playing marginally better than they did against the Portland Trailblazers in Round 1. Their field goal percentage is essentially the same, and both their three-point percentage and free-throw percentage have actually gone down. This isn’t about Memphis turning into a championship contender (which they are not), it’s about the Warriors going cold when it comes to jump shots.
So are Golden State’s championship aspirations ruined? Of course not. The Warriors are playing one of the better defensive teams in the league. Memphis is known for grinding through games and slowing down fast-paced opponents like Golden State. If Steph Curry can start hitting his shots, and if the offense as a whole can start clicking again, then the Warriors will be well on their way to a championship.
However, they aren’t out of the woods yet. If the Grizzlies’ defense continues to suffocate Golden State’s long range looks, then this could get ugly real fast. A win for the Warriors tonight in Memphis will signal that they are the team we remember from last month, and that the Grizzlies aren’t immune to the offensive explosions that Golden State is capable of. But a loss tonight would mean going down 3-1. Steph’s MVP trophy could end up not as a memory of a great year, but a reminder of failed expectations.
Prediction: It all depends on tonight. The Warriors are still the best team in the league, and it’s time for them to prove it. They will always be the favorites to win until they are sent home.